DEC'25-MAR'26 WHEAT SPREAD (ZWZ25-ZWH26)

Rich Moran                                                                                                          7/23/2025

WALSH PURE SPREADER

Pure Hedge Division

DEC'25-MAR'26 WHEAT SPREAD (ZWZ25-ZWH26)

About a month ago (6/25/25) I wrote about the SEP-DEC ’25 Wheat Spread.  At that point this spread was trading around -24/-23 and I suggested that -27 might be a good place to try to get long.  Today this spread is trading around -20.  If you happen to have a resting bid down near -27, I would probably pull that bid, at least for the time being.  If it gets down there now you might not want it.

I have moved my focus up to the DEC ’25-MAR ’26 WHEAT SPREAD (ZWZ25-ZWH26).  Back on 6/25/25 this spread was trading around -19½ and settled -19¾.  It has only moved (strengthened) about 1 cent since then and settled today at -18½.  I feel this spread now gives us a better chance to take advantage of a possible upward move.

The fundamentals are somewhat mixed in the wheat market, but I am focused on and sensing some optimism from trade deals with places like Japan and the Philippines.  I would not be surprised if more countries follow suit. If we do get a bounce in the wheat market, I believe that DEC (ZWZ25) can outpace March (ZWH26) on the way up. Even if the market continues to trend down, I think the ZWZ25-ZWH26 spread may hang tough and move up (less negative).

I suggest trying to get long this spread at -18½ (today’s settlement) ….

Risk 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread

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Following up on past trade ideas:

1. 7/18/25:  ZLZ25-ZLH26 – Today’s settlement: 0.14

DEC’25-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread – Still like our longs at +0.15 risking 0.30 cents to make 0.90 cents.

1. 7/16/25 (6/20/2025):  ZCU25-ZCZ25 – Today’s Settlement: -19

(SEP-DEC’25 Corn Spread) –Still like out shorts at -17½ risking 3½ tics to -14 to make 8.5 tics at -26. 

1. 7/11/2025:  ZSQ25-ZSX25 – Today’s Settlement: -17

(AUG-NOV’25 Soybean Spread) – If you were short the spread at +2.5, we hit our target of -15.5 for an 18 cent or $900 Per Spread winner.  You should now be flat this spread for an 18 tic or $900 Per Spread Winner.

1. 7/9/2025: (LEG26x2)-GFQ25-ZCU25 – Today’s Settlement: -281.63

(FEB’26 Live Cattle x 2, AUG ’25 Feeder Cattle, SEP ’25 Corn – Cattle Crush Spread) – Still looking to get short and waiting to settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.   

1.   7/2/2025:  ZMQ25-ZMZ25 – Today’s Settlement: -13.6

(AUG-DEC’25 Soybean Meal Spread) – Still looking to buy this spread if we can get above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.  It got above both moving averages today, but settled below the 21-day moving average.

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Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.co

Direct: (312)985-0298

Cell: (773)502-5321

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