AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn Market 3 to 5 Cents Higher

Corn futures are 3 to 5 cents higher this morning, erasing losses of 2 1/2 to 3 3/4 cents in the front months on Monday. Sluggish exports were the main feature. Export inspections for the week ending 10/17 showed that corn exports had increased 10.6% over last week to 531,744 MT. That brought the MYTD total to 3,038,063 MT (119.6 mbu) only 38.2% of last year’s rate. The USDA Crop Progress report after the close showed maturity 11% behind average pace at 86%. North Dakota is only 65% mature, 28 percentage points behind average. Michigan is 27 percentage points behind their average (62%), and Wisconsin is only 61% mature, 27 percentage points behind their average. The report also revealed corn harvest on the low side of expectations at 30% complete, lagging the 47% average for this date. Conditions were rated 56% gd/ex, up 1%, with the Brugler500 index up 2 at 349.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market 8 to 10 Higher Overnight on China Rumors

Soybeans futures are 8 to 10 cents per bushel higher, again showing overnight buying activity. The market was acting on rumors that China had issued tariff waivers for another 10 MMT of soybeans. This would allow private firms to buy US beans IF the FOB prices are low enough in the US to be competitive with South America. Futures were fractionally mixed on Monday. Soybean meal was 80 cents/ton lower, and soy oil closed 12 points higher. Trade ideas for soybean harvest progress were 37 to 40% ahead of the USDA crop progress report, with the actual progress at 46% after a week of better weather. The 5 year average pace is 64% done by now. The Dakotas are notably behind schedule, but that is a known at this point. The last soybean crop condition ratings of the season were 54% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index at 345, both unch from last week. Soybean export inspections for the week ending 10/17 indicated shipments are 7.24% ahead of last year’s pace. Coming off of a 26.3% increase over last week, the 1.296 MMT of soybean exports brought the YTD total to 6.458 MMT (237.3 mbu). The main destination for soybeans was China, with 207,445 MT (16%).

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets Are 5 to 7 Cents Higher

Wheat futures are 5 to 7 cents per bushel higher in all three futures markets to begin your Tuesday. They were down by as much as 8 3/4 cents for winter wheat contracts on Monday. Spring wheat was also lower, closing down 6 3/4 cents lower on Monday. NASS reported on Monday afternoon that winter wheat was 77% planted, and 53% emerged for the 18 states USDA tracks. Wheat export inspections from the week ending 10/17 showed an increase in wk/wk wheat exports with 565,099 MT, up 67,631 from the week ending 10/10. The YTD total is 10.063 MMT (367.77 mbu), 18.3% ahead of last year’s pace. HRW wheat was the biggest component of the week’s total exports with a 36.4% share. HRS exports encompassed a 33.4% share of the week’s exports, while 22% were soft white.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Supported by Higher Beef Prices

Live cattle futures were up by 15 to 47 cents in the front months on Monday, while feeder cattle futures were lower by 35 to 75 cents. The Cargill plant in Dodge City is back online after a two day partial outage. China has lifted the 20-year ban on importing British beef, the two countries have finalized a 5 year trade deal worth over £230 million. The 10/18 CME Feeder Cattle index saw another 37 cent increase, and is up to $145.96. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday. Choice boxes finished Monday $2.09 higher to $220.13, while Select boxes on average increased $1.40 to $194.44. The Chc/Sel spread widened to $25.69. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for Monday was 118,000 head, up 1,000 head from last week and even with the same Monday last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Firmer On Bump in Cash Index

Hog futures were 15 to 97 cents higher in all contracts except nearby December on Monday. It settled 12 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up by $0.74 on Oct 17 to $65.64. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.50 higher at $78.53 at the end of Monday’s session. The national average base hog for 10/21 was $0.24 higher at $56.94. USDA estimated hog slaughter for Monday was 488,000 head, which is 13,000 head up from last year. The year to date estimated hog slaughter is 102.440 million head, still outpacing last year by 3.61%. Chinese researchers announced that they had modeled the 5-layered ASF virus and some of its component parts. Further work will be needed to target potential vaccines to the structure of the virus.

provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market 26 to 32 Points Higher Overnight

Cotton futures are 26 to 32 points higher this morning, joining a wave of ag commodity buying overnight. They were down by 27 to 72 points at the close on Monday. The dollar and stock market are both hovering near UNCH. Cotton harvest was up 8% over last week to 40% complete per the USDA’s weekly crop progress report. That is 5% above average, with Texas 3 percentage points ahead of their average pace. Conditions in the report were 41% good/ex, up 3%, with the Brugler500 unch at 321. The Cotlook A Index was 45 points higher on Oct 18, to 75.45 cents/lb. The AWP is 55.26, effective through Thursday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com