Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures finished the week with a 4 1/2 cent loss after ending Friday’s session mostly steady to higher. The USDA reported a private export sale of 245,872 MT of corn to Mexico under the daily reporting system with a 19/20 MY delivery. Estimates for ending stocks ahead of WASDE’s report range from as low as 1.190 bbu, to 1.960 bbu and the average estimate of polled analysts coming in at 1.902 bbu. The November forecast was 1.91 bbu. The Commitment of Traders Report showed that as of Tuesday spec traders were 85,137 contracts net short, following a 26.65% bearish shift of the position wk/wk.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, up 1 cent,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, unch,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.82 1/2, unch,

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.86 3/4, down 1/4 cent

Soybeans were up again on Friday with the nearby futures gaining 4 3/4 to 5 1/4 cents. That was enough to push futures to a weekly gain of 12 3/4 cents. Soybean meal futures were $2.10/ton lower on Friday but still ended the week with a $6.20/ton gain. Soy oil futures are up 72 points, and 64 points higher wk/wk. WASDE estimates for U.S. soybean carryout range from 392 to 522 mbu with the average of those polled shown at 474 mbu. The Nov. WASDE had USDA forecasts for ending stocks at 475 mbu. Stats Canada reported Canadian canola production at 18.649 MMT, down 8.3% from last year. The CFTC report from this afternoon showed managed money was net short beans, for the second week in a row. . Meal spec traders were shown at 43,910 contracts net short, which was the 3rd consecutive week expanding their position further short. As for bean oil, managed money was still net long, which brings their streak to 12 weeks of holding a long position on net.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.89 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $9.03 3/4, up 5 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.31 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $297.40, down $2.10,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.01, up $0.72

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat spot contracts (in deliveries) were up 1/2 cent in Chicago, down by 5 1/4 cents in KC and for MGE futures were 1 cent lower. Chicago wheat lost the most wk/wk with a 17 and 1/4 cent loss since last Friday. Mar KC futures were directly behind carrying a 16 1/2 cent loss on the week into the weekend. MGE wheat was also lower on the week, but only by 1 3/4 cents. The Philippines have issued an international tender to purchase 165,000 MT of feed wheat. Traders on average are expecting a reduction in wheat ending stocks for the 19/20 forecast. Estimates for U.S. wheat carryover in the December 10 report range from 964 mbu to 1.05 bbu, ahead of Tuesday’s report day. The latest WASDE from Nov. had wheat ending stocks at 1.014 bbu. Russian Ag ministry forecasts 2019 wheat crop at 75 MMT in their latest update. Stats Canada estimates their wheat crop to be 32.348 MMT. The latest CFTC report showed that Spec funds were net long Chicago wheat for the second week in a row; they nearly doubled their long wk/wk and as of Tuesday were net long by 20,567 contracts. Kansas City managed money traders were net short once more, this time their 14,252 contract position was reduced wk/wk. As for MGE wheat futures, managed money expanded their net short to 22,562 contracts – a 9.46% increase.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.15, down 5 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.97, down 1 cent

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

live cattle futures finished the week carrying a $1.00 loss as options expired. First notice day for delivery is Monday. Live cattle futures gains were limited to 40 cents in the front months. Feeder cattle futures finished the week 72 1/2 cents lower, but made a gains of $0.65 to $1.00 on Friday. The 12/05 CME Feeder Cattle index was $144.49, dropping by 4 cents. The EU ratified the U.S.-E.U. Beef Access Agreement, bumping the TRQ on hormone free American beef from 13,000 MT/ year to 18,500 MT/year and set to be as high as 35,000 MT/ year by 2027. Additionally the Japan trade deal is set to go into effect Jan 1st. Japan was the destination for 22.03% of beef shipments in October. As of Tuesday, Spec traders were net long by 78,214 contracts for Live cattle futures. The position shrank wk/wk by 3,443 contracts, but OI for long spec traders has remained over 100,000 for 4 consecutive weeks, for the first time since May. In the same Commitment of Traders Report, spec fund traders were shown net long for feeder cattle futures as well. Their position was 1,371 contracts as of 12/03. Friday afternoon boxed beef prices were lower, but tightened the spread to 17.26. Choice boxes showed a $1.04 decrease, while select boxes were 82 cents lower. The USDA reported Nebraska dressed sales of $188.00 and WCB cash sales of $118-$119. KS live cattle sales were $119. USDA estimated the weekly FI cattle slaughter to be 679,000 head through Saturday. This would be 10,000 head above the same week last year. The YTD slaughter is 1.1% ahead of last year at 31.026 million head.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $120.200, up $0.275,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $124.975, up $0.375,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $125.550, up $0.400,

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.550, up $1.000

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.675, up $0.525

APR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.775, up $0.650

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures were mixed with Dec down by 45 cents; the other nearbys ended mixed. Lean hog futures were lower on the week by 62 1/2 cents. The 12/04 CME Lean Hog Index was at 58.34, after an increase of 14 cents. In the weekly update from the CFTC, managed money was shown at 3,774 contracts net short for Lean Hog Futures. That is the second consecutive week the spec traders held a short position after a 36 consecutive week streak being net long. The pork carcass cutout value was up 72 cents and primal cuts were mostly higher. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/05 was $0.08 lower to $46.59. USDA’s weekly total estimate for FI hog slaughter through Thursday was 2.799 million head through Saturday. That brings the YTD slaughter to 120.679 million head. ASF cases have been on the Eastern side of Poland since 2014, infecting both wild boar and domestic populations. Last week there were wild boars found to have the virus on the West side of the country. The West side of Poland has most of the hog production, and borders Germany which is the leading nation for EU pork production. As of today 200,000 wild boar have been culled in Poland, with 21 new cases of ASF discovered in the Western region. Through November Europe reported 300 cases of ASF in wild boar, and reported 84 cases of ASF in domestic hogs (78 domestic hog ASF were in Romania).

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $61.125, down $0.450,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $67.550, down $0.025

APR 20 Hogs closed at $73.700, up $0.200

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were up triple digits in pre weekend trading. Friday moves were enough to push cotton to wk/wk gains of 59 points in the March futures. The CFTC report from this afternoon showed that as of Tuesday managed money spec traders were 7,661 contracts short. Which was a 51.82% growth in the net position. Spec trader open interest from was at an 8 week high, but the 75,777 contracts are still below the ~100,000 OI levels through the summer into September. The Seam reported 8,989 bales sold on Dec 5th, bringing the weekly total to 30,597 bales; last week the total was 35,384 bales sold. The 12/05 Cotlook A Index was regained all 65 points back up to 74.15. The weekly AWP was reduced to 55.97 cents/lb. on Thursday, effective through December 12.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.06, up 55 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.95, up 144 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 66.82, up 132 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 67.52, up 104 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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